The candidate makes his choice, e.g. number
"I know the door with the car behind, but I'll open a door with a goat."
e.g. number 3.
"Do you still go for the
same door or do you want to revise your choice ?"
How would YOU decide ?
No, I won't change my mind, my chance would still be 1/3.
No, I won't change my mind, my chance will diminish.
Regardless of whether I switch, my chance will rise to 1/2.
Yes, I want to change doors, because my chance will rise to
Yes, I want to change doors, because my chance will rise,
but to another value than 1/2 or 2/3.
Result (until 6/17/98): 47 of 107 submissions were correct.
Die Anregung zu dieser Aufgabe verdanke ich:
Gero von Randow: "Das Ziegenproblem", Denken in Wahrscheinlichkeiten
science sachbuch, rororo 9337
If you can't make up your mind - play the game !
- Choose one of the doors with your first
mouse click. Your choice will be marked green;
the show master opens one of the the two doors remaining (marked by a red frame).
- Confirm your
choice with a second mouse click or, if you changed your mind, select
Now the result will be shown and displayed as
- Click on "new game"
The button "clear" will reset all previous
Repeat and compare the results with and without
changing your choice !
Hint: the Java console shows the distribution of the random
[List of quiz problems]
[List of my Quiz Problems]
Links: More problems
: 2010, May 13